The new Cold War will divide the world between two blocs — a Russia-China bloc and a US-backed Indian bloc. And Pakistan will be the next arena of the coming Cold War because of its ideal strategic location. Main players of the game such as North Korea, Pakistan, Iran and the Central Asian republics, etc., are likely to align with the Russia-China alliance. On the other side, Japan, Georgia, Ukraine, South Korea, etc. will join the US-backed Indian bloc.
In this regard, during his trip to Australia on November 17, 2011, President Barrack Obama, while sending an unmistakable message to Beijing, said, “The United States is a Pacific power, and we are here to stay,” and he would send military aircraft and 2,500 Marines to Australia for a training hub to help allies and to protect U.S. interests across Asia.
Obama stressed that any reductions in America’s defense spending will not come at the expense of that goal. He also stated that the U.S. is not afraid of China. In this respect, America also has troops in and security relationships with some Gulf countries.
While, after the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan in 2014, the U.S. has decided to establish six military bases in that country having eyes on the energy resources of Central Asia, with multiple strategic designs against Pakistan, China, Iran and Russia.
Meanwhile, President Obama unveiled a new defence strategy on January 5, 2012, which calls for greater U.S. military presence in Asia after cutting troops from Europe; the strategy calls for the U.S. military to “rebalance toward the Asia-Pacific region...even as our troops continue to fight in Afghanistan, the tide of war is receding.”
As regards Russia, it opposes U.S. intentions to deploy a national missile defence system (NMD) in Europe, while differences already existed between Moscow and Washington over the U.S.-led NATO attack on Libya. Russia and China have asked the U.S. to resolve the question of Iran’s nuclear programme peacefully. But America and Israel are oursuing war-like diplomacy against Iran. Tel Aviv has even threatened to attack Iran, while Iranian rulers have also said that they would retaliate in case of any invasion. Russia, on January 18, 2012, rejected the tough U.S.-led Western strategy of sanctions over Iran and Syria. In this regard, on February this year, Russia and China vetoed the UN Security Council draft resolution calling the Syrian president to step down.
After observing the emerging ground realties, and sinister designs of the US, a shift has already occurred in the foreign policy of Pakistan. In this context Islamabad, which had already been having a cordial relationship with China, signed a number of agreements with Beijing in various sectors including the defence sector and has cultivated its relationship with the Russian Federation. In 2010, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin publicly endorsed Pakistan's bid to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Putin also remarked that Pakistan was a very important partner in South Asia and the Muslim world for Russia.
During the trip of Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar to Russia on February 9 of this year, she stated that the SCO was an exceptionally important forum within the region to counter regional challenges. Pakistan and Russia also agreed to enhance bilateral relations in such diverse fields as trade, energy, infrastructure development, agriculture, science and technology, etc. When Russian military Chief Col-Gen. Alexander Postnikov visited Pakistan on May, 2011, he discussed with Army Chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani the possibility of expanding defence ties. On November 28, 2011, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, while commenting on the NATO cross-border air attack in Pakistan in November, emphasised that a nation’s sovereignty should always be upheld.
In their summit of August 16, 2007, the leaders of the SCO displayed strength against rising U.S. dominance in the region and NATO’s military presence in Afghanistan, near the region of Central Asia.
Taking note of the new U.S. military strategy, Turkey also changed its policy. Now, by supporting the cause of Palestinians, Ankara wants to increase trade with Iran — not to comply with sanctions against Tehran. Keeping in mind the new emerging geo-political scenario in the world, Pakistan is also strengthening its ties with Turkey.
Nonetheless, the new U.S. defence strategy is part of the Indo-U.S. hidden agenda in Afghanistan. The U.S. wants to protect the puppet regime of Hamid Karzai and Indian influence in Afghanistan under the umbrella of its military presence because it knows that otherwise Taliban militants will topple the Karzai regime, also forcing India to withdrawal its network from Afghanistan. India, which has already invested billion of dollars in Afghanistan, signed a strategic partnership agreement with that country on on October 5, 2011, seeking to further strengthen its grip there to gain strategic depth against Islamabad.
No doubt, America has been especially supporting cross-border infiltration into Pakistan with the assistance of the CIA, the Indian intelligence agency RAW and the Israeli secret agency Mossad which have well-established their network in Afghanistan to destabilise Pakistan, which is the only nuclear country in the Islamic world. For this purpose highly trained militants equipped with sophisticated weapons are being sent to Pakistan’s various places, who are continuously conducting suicide attacks, targeted killings, and ethnic and sectarian violence in Pakistan.
The U.S. and India are particularly supporting the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and another separatist group, Jundollah (God’s soldiers). In the past few years Jundollah has kidnapped and murdered a number of Chinese and Iranian nationals in Pakistan. This insurgent group has not only been committing acts of sabotage in Pakistan, but also in the Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchistan. Particularly, Balochistan’s mineral resources and geo-strategic location with the Gwadar seaport, connecting the rest of the world with Central Asia, have further annoyed America and India because China has already invested billion of dollars to develop this seaport. However, it is due to multiple strategic designs that the U.S., which signed a nuclear deal with India in 2008, intends to control Balochistan in containing China and subduing Iran. Balochistan has also shifted the Great Game to Pakistan.
Notably, on February 8, 2012 a hearing of the U.S. Congressional Committee on Foreign Affairs, chaired by Dana Rohrabacher, discussed targeted killings and human rights violations in Balochistan. He has also co-authored an article a few days ago, favouring an independent Balochistan. It has exposed U.S. support to the Baloch separatists.
Besides spending huge amounts on military buildup and purchases of sophisticated arms from other Western countries, America, which has emerged as a potential military supplier to India, has lifted sanctions on New Delhi to import nuclear technology. The U.S. also agreed to sell India the most expensive — new F-35 - fighter jets and other advanced equipment. With the backing of the U.S., Israel is helping India in various sectors, especially in defence.
As regards the Afghan reconciliation process with the militants which are taking place in Qatar, British media reports indicated that U.S.-Taliban talks on the release of five prisoners from the Guantanamo Bay detention center have failed. Taliban did not agree to the U.S. demand of a ceasefire before the release of the prisoners.
However, the rapidly changing geo-political scenario shows that the next Cold War, which is at embryonic stage, will be fought in Asia because in its pursuit to make India a great power of Asia the U.S. is likely to initiate it. Nevertheless, the new Cold War will divide the world between two blocs — a Russia-China bloc and a US-backed Indian bloc. And Pakistan will be the next arena of the coming Cold War because of its ideal strategic location. Main players of the game such as North Korea, Pakistan, Iran and the Central Asian republics, etc., are likely to align with the Russia-China alliance. On the other side, Japan, Georgia, Ukraine, South Korea, etc. will join the US-backed Indian bloc.
Meanwhile, terrorism is likely to add a dangerous element of ‘hot war’ to the future Cold War. In this regard, an unending ‘different war’ between sovereign and non-sovereign entities in Afgahanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, etc. and other Middle East countries will make the matter worse. All these negative developments are likely to create political and economic instability in Asia, enveloping developed countries such as Japan, South Korea, etc. and Europe where the generality of people already hold America responsible for the financial crisis.
The fact of the matter is that the end of the Cold War has given a great boost to American arms firms and dealers who now seek to sell their weapons throughout the world. Their strong lobbies are present in America. It is because of these lobbies that Republican lawmakers who opposed defence cuts in the American budget compelled President Obama to act upon a war-mongering policy in Asia.
It is due to the ill-conceived U.S. policy that it will compel Asian nations to follow the bygone days of the Cold War — a deadly arms race and increase in defence expenditures at the cost of the development of the public sector in the wake of modern world trends like the peaceful settlement of disputes and economic development. So in the present era, U.S. intentions to militarise Asia seems quite illogical.
Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations
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